Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration in January for a third term as Venezuela’s president may appear to offer little hope for change in the country with the world’s biggest oil reserves. 

Government mismanagement under the socialist regime and US sanctions have crippled the petrostate’s economy and prompted an exodus of people and foreign firms. But last year’s fraudulent election results may have impacted the chavismo — the left-wing ideology that has ruled the country for 26 years — in ways that cannot yet be seen from the outside. The president has lost his social base and is leading a regime doomed to fail. 

On top of that, there’s also more potential fractures caused by the tough new US administration.

Hope for democratic change

Following last July’s elections, I anticipated two possible scenarios. The first was negotiation, with regional allies Brazil and Colombia leading diplomatic efforts to resolve the stand-off through a transitional government and fresh elections. The second scenario was isolation, with the regime attempting to remain in power through repression and internal purges.

Maduro and his allies have chosen the isolationist path, which leaves both Venezuelans and the international community asking if there is still hope for democratic change in the country. Despite the long road ahead, the winds of change are blowing. 

Elections in Venezuela have been neither free nor fair for years, with the chavismo regime effectively limiting the opposition’s capacity by outlawing candidates and parties via political or judicial repression. However, the fraud was much bigger this time, with the regime intimidating people providing services or goods to the opposition campaign and later failing to show disaggregated results by polling station, confirming that Maduro no longer enjoys a strong social base. In addition, the low-ranking soldiers charged with overseeing the vote did not prevent the opposition from getting copies of the electoral ballots, which were instrumental for the opposition to accuse the regime of rigging the elections. 

The chavismo led by the late Hugo Chávez was successful in part as a result of a charismatic leader and revolutionary ideology based on so-called socialism for the 21st century. In today’s chavismo, little if anything remains of those ideological principles.

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New White House, new policy

It’s also possible that the Trump administration’s stance on Venezuela further destabilises the Maduro regime. Comments by newly-confirmed secretary of state, Marco Rubio, in January suggest the government could increase pressure on Venezuela. 

During a hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Mr Rubio said the Biden administration “got played” by Venezuela’s president, whose regime earned “billions of dollars” through special oil licences to operate in Venezuela awarded by the US treasury department to energy companies such as Chevron and Repsol. These were granted as an exception to US sanctions in exchange for Maduro’s failed promise to hold democratic elections and as an alternative source of oil in the context of the US ban on Russian oil exports.

Mr Rubio’s comments suggest the new administration could toughen sanctions and revoke the special licences with the aim of cutting Venezuela’s oil revenue. Under this scenario, with western firms being caught by secondary (or even primary) sanctions, the Venezuelan government could further increase their reliance on sanctioned economies by selling more oil on the black market or expanding drug trafficking and illegal mining activities. However, this could result in internal conflicts within the regime over the control of this illegal trade, ultimately destabilising the president and his inner circle. 

Any real risk of government collapse could lead the army to oust the president and negotiate a transitional government with the opposition. While the army has remained loyal to Maduro to date, the soldiers’ actions on election day suggest its loyalty may not be as unwavering as in the past. Under these circumstances, the army leaders, whose control of important sectors of the Venezuelan economy would be put in danger, could seek a change of regime should they be promised a transitional justice process without fear of retaliation or prosecution.

Credibility crisis

The chavismo doesn’t have the credibility internally or externally to continue calling itself a democratic force, nor does it have the popular support that it once enjoyed under Mr Chávez. Meanwhile, Mr Maduro is in survival mode and has decided not to take the exit strategy offered by his allies in Colombia and Brazil. 

There are early, albeit obscure, signs the elections have altered the status quo within the chavismo. Venezuelans shouldn’t forget the recent ousting of Bashar al-Asaad in Syria. It shows that authoritarian regimes can collapse in hours like a house of cards.

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